Unravelling the Link Between Party System Fragmentation and Electoral Volatility: The Case of Pakistan (1970–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55737/trt/FL25.189Keywords:
Party System Fragmentation, Electoral Volatility, Politics, Pakistan, Effective Number of Parties, Democratic Pluralism, Democratic InstitutionsAbstract
Electoral volatility and party system fragmentation are important features of the political party system. This study seeks to examine the role of party system fragmentation in the electoral volatility in Pakistan. The study examines the relationship between the Effective Number of Parties (ENP) and electoral volatility in Pakistan from 1970 to 2024 through a mixed-methods approach. The study uses the Pedersen index to quantify volatility and the Taagepera index of fragmentation to quantify the Effective Number of Parties. The findings showed that the relationship between volatility and fragmentation is not linear over time. Findings showed that the 1970s to 1990s and 2013 have high fragmentation. However, the electoral periods of 2018 and 2024 have high fragmentation but a fall in volatility, thus they nullify the idea that fragmentation necessarily leads to democratic pluralism. The study is an important contribution to the literature on party system fragmentation and electoral volatility in Pakistan.
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