Middle Power Agency Under Strategic Constraint: Pakistan’s Mediation Potential in US–Iran Negotiations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55737/trt/v-viii.388Keywords:
Middle Powers, Pakistan Foreign Policy, Mediation Diplomacy, US–Iran Relations, Strategic Balancing, Neoclassical Realism, Emerging PowersAbstract
In the contemporary international system, middle powers increasingly exert influence beyond their traditional material constraints. As great powers remain dominant in shaping international security architecture, the rising power of emerging powers is using mediation, strategic balancing, and niche diplomacy to shape regional outcomes. The case of Pakistan is very special as it has a unique geopolitical position and, at the same time, has a dual relationship with the USA and Iran. The literature on Pakistan is primarily security-based, alliance-oriented, and/or regionally oriented and insufficiently theorises the capacity of Pakistan's diplomacy to become a middle power. This article contends that Pakistan's mediation effectiveness is not only determined by its status as a 'normal' middle power but also depends on its ability to institutionalise strategic neutrality and sustain credible diplomatic autonomy amidst conflicting system pressures. The study draws on a combination of Middle Power Theory and Neoclassical Realism to analyze and explore the mediation potential of Pakistan in key diplomatic moments and processes using qualitative process tracing and policy-oriented analysis. The article shows that mediation effectiveness is not necessarily the result of strategic geography. Instead, diplomatic credibility, domestic political unity, and apparent neutrality among competing forces are the three factors that are essential for a successful mediation. Pakistan has good diplomatic opportunities in terms of communication and regional legitimacy, but weak internal stability, dependence on outside powers, and multiple geopolitical differences limit its role as an intermediary. This article contributes to middle-power scholarship by advancing an agency-centred framework for understanding how developing states transform strategic positioning into diplomatic influence.
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