Reshaping the Geopolitics of the Middle East: An Analysis of the Abraham Accords

Abstract

The Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020, marked the first major normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab states, namely the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco more than twenty-five years ago. This research aims at studying the effects of these agreements on geopolitics in the Middle East region over the first five years since their signing, 2020-2025, against the backdrop of the long-lasting war in Gaza and the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Such aspects as the effect on trade and investment, security cooperation in order to prevent any Iranian interference, the effect of the Gaza war on the support of states and the population, and the possibility of extension of the accords to Saudi Arabia and post-Assad Syria are examined. Qualitative research method is used in accordance with the comparative and thematic analysis of official documents, trade statistics, defense agreements, public opinion polls, and policy reports. The results indicate remarkable success at the governmental level: trade UAE-Israel has amounted to $3.2 billion in 2024, Morocco has bought significant amounts of arms from Israel. Nevertheless, there was a massive decline in popular support, and the approval rate for Morocco fell from thirty-one percent in 2021 to thirteen percent in 2024. In sum, the study shows that while there has been an actual construction of economic and security interdependence among states, for true change to take place at the regional level, more states need to be involved, and more needs to be done about the Palestinian question to close the widening gap between pragmatism and popular sentiment.