Forecasting Drought Risk and Economic Vulnerability of cash Crops in Sindh, Pakistan: A Time Series and Spatial Econometric Analysis
Contributors
- Amanullah Tunio PhD Scholar, Department of Statistics, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Sindh, Pakistan.
- Riaz Ali Buriro Professor, Department of Statistics, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Sindh, Pakistan.
- Muhammad Hanif Lakho Professor, Department of Statistics, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Sindh, Pakistan.
- Habibullah Magsi Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Sindh, Pakistan.
Abstract
To manage agricultural risk in a proactive manner in water scarce areas, drought forecasting and spatial vulnerability assessment are crucial. Forecasting models for drought risk and economic vulnerability assessment of cash crops in Sindh, Pakistan in the present and future climate scenarios are developed in this study. To predict the SPI-6 value for 2025-2026, ARIMA time series model has been applied. Spatial econometric models (Spatial Durbin Model) accounted for spillovers between districts. Parameter uncertainties were quantified using Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations). Future impacts were estimated using climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5). Results show that the ARIMA(1,0,1) model has an AR coefficient of 0.4589 (p<0.001) with AIC of 1033.8. Moderate drought (SPI between -0.42 and -0.31) is forecast for early 2025 and 2026. Spatial lag coefficient (ρ=0.324, p<0.001) validates the presence of cross-district drought spillovers. The parameter robustness is established with the Monte Carlo simulation, and results show a parameter interval of 95% for SPI-6 between 0.067 and 0.235. Total economic losses are estimated to be 214.7 billion PKR by 2030, an increase of 63.3% under SSP2-4.5. They conclude that early warning systems and regional coordination are needed to proactively manage persistent drought risk.
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Corresponding Author
Amanullah Tunio
PhD Scholar, Department of Statistics, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Sindh, Pakistan.
Corresponding Author: [email protected]
